July 22, 2024

Forecast Discussion

MONDAY 6/24/2024

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the middle to upper end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the “Good” range in most of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Houston, Lubbock, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Very light density smoke from widespread seasonal burning activities throughout Central and Southern Mexico as well as Central America will filter over much of the eastern two-thirds of the state, however, the majority of the smoke will likely remain aloft and not mix down to the surface. Meanwhile, slightly elevated fine particulate matter across the eastern two-thirds of the state mainly due to light winds and elevated relative humidity levels may periodically raise PM2.5 concentrations into the “Moderate” range at times, primarily in more urban areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to net out in the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the “Good” range in most of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Sustained light surface winds and limited vertical mixing across far West Texas is expected to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI into the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the El Paso area.

TUESDAY 6/25/2024

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the middle to upper end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the El Paso area; the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Midland-Odessa areas; and the upper end of the “Good” range in most of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Houston, Lubbock, and Tyler-Longview areas.

The large area of very light density residual smoke attributed to widespread seasonal burning activities throughout Central/Southern Mexico and Central America is expected to continue filtering and lingering over much of the eastern two-thirds of the state, however, model guidance suggests the majority of the smoke will remain aloft and not mix down to the surface. Meanwhile, slightly elevated fine particulate matter across the eastern two-thirds of the state mainly due to light winds and elevated relative humidity levels may again periodically raise PM2.5 concentrations into the “Moderate” range at times, primarily in more urban areas, however better pollutant dispersion is expected to keep the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the Tyler-Longview area and the upper end of the “Good” range in most of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Light winds and low morning vertical low mixing heights associated with a ridge of high pressure aloft will limit atmospheric mixing and dispersion at the surface across portions of far West Texas, enhancing fine particulate pollution and could result in the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs reaching the lower to middle of the “Moderate” range in parts of the El Paso area.

WEDNESDAY 6/26/2024 OUTLOOK

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the El Paso area and the upper end of the “Good” range in most of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Depending on the amount of seasonal burning activities throughout Central/Southern Mexico and Central America, southerly winds may continue to steer light density residual smoke over portions of the eastern two-thirds of the state, however, much of the smoke is expected to remain aloft. Meanwhile, slightly elevated fine particulate matter across the eastern two-thirds of the state mainly due to light winds and elevated relative humidity levels may at times raise PM2.5 concentrations into the “Moderate” range, primarily in more urban areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the Tyler-Longview area and the upper end of the “Good” range in most of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Laredo, San Antonio, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light winds and limited vertical mixing could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the El Paso area.

THURSDAY 6/27/2024 OUTLOOK

Warm to hot temperatures, light winds, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could result in ozone reaching the upper end of the “Good” range in parts of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Should the seasonal burning activities throughout Central/Southern Mexico and Central America continue, southerly winds may continue to steer light density residual smoke over portions of the eastern two-thirds of the state, however, much of the smoke is expected to remain aloft. Meanwhile, slightly elevated fine particulate matter across the eastern two-thirds of the state mainly due to light winds and elevated relative humidity levels may at times raise PM2.5 concentrations into the “Moderate” range, primarily in more urban areas. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas and the upper end of the “Good” range in most of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Brownsville-McAllen, Bryan-College Station, Corpus Christi, Laredo, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas associated with light winds and limited vertical mixing could raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the upper end of the “Good” range in parts of the El Paso area.