*CORRECTION* TCEQ Daily Air Quality Forecast Update

Forecast Discussion

Wednesday 8/28/2024

Light winds, hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels may be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the “Moderate” range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, Midland-Odessa, and Tyler-Longview areas and the upper end of the “Good” range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Lubbock, San Antonio, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations expected in the afternoon and evening.

Relative humidity will remain elevated in the eastern half of Texas as weak high pressure in the Lower Mississippi Valley continues to facilitate moisture advection out of the Gulf of Mexico. While this could slightly elevate urban fine particulate matter, upper-level shortwave disturbances will sustain a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in Central, Southern, and Southeast Texas and should provide sufficient pollutant dispersion. Depending on the burnings across Canada and the southeast U.S., very light amounts of residual smoke could keep fine particulate matter concentrations somewhat increased in North Central and Northeast Texas. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the Houston area and the upper end of the “Good” range (perhaps with an isolated low “Moderate”) in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.

Thursday 8/29/2024

Light winds, hot temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels may be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the El Paso and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the “Good” range for the majority of the Amarillo, Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas, with the highest concentrations expected in the afternoon and evening.

South/southeasterly winds will continue to pump moisture out of the Gulf as low pressure slowly tracks southward near the KS-CO border. While this combined with light surface winds could slightly elevate fine particulate formation in the more populated areas, the persistent upper shortwaves will keep the chance for precipitation in the forecast for Central, Southern, and Southeast Texas. Residual smoke could continue affecting portions some areas but will likely remain isolated to North Central and Northeast Texas. The daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower end of the “Moderate” range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the upper end of the “Good” range in a majority of the Austin, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, El Paso, Houston, San Antonio, Tyler-Longview, Victoria, and Waco-Killeen areas.